Thursday, September 4, 2008

TWM Bought @ $65.57

ETF Analysis TWM [Shorting Russell Index: AMEX]
Sector: Ultra Short Russell 2000 Pro Shares
Fundamentals: Russel 2000 and also most index are bearish long term. Can be visualized that current P/E trend as of second quarter of 2008 is higher compared to historic P/E average of 15.Technicals: Bounced off from recent low of $63.09 on Sep 2, 2008 compared to $62.24 on August 15, 2008. Forming a MACD divergence and heading up to MA(40) weekly/ MA(200) daily in image below. Also, on August 18, 2008 formed a Bullish Continuation Wedge pattern with potential target of $88.00 within next 60 days.
Cost basis: Bought at $65.57
Target: $75.41
Stop loss: $62.91 [Below Sep 2, 2008 low of $63.09]
Next Earnings: N/A
Last Analyst Rating: N/A
Other comments: Historically September is a bad month for stocks which is in favor for this ETF.

Sunday, August 24, 2008

CCK Bought @ $26.73

Stock Analysis CCK [Crown Holdings Inc.: NYSE]
Sector: Packaging & Containers; Containers-Metal/ Glass; Consumer Non-Durables
Fundamentals: Ann. 5 Yr. Hist. EPS Growth 42.25; P/S 0.53. Considering Analysts 5 year average Earnings Growth Rate of 8.33% and applying discount rate of 15% the Intrinsic Value is $32.91 which indicates that this is Undervalued. Also, CCK's 1 year cash flow and revenue growth are 21.05% and 9.42% higher than the industry average, which can indicate that the company is managing its sales and costs better than its competitors are.
Technicals: Bounced off from the MA(40) weekly. On August 20, 2008 formed a Bullish Symmetrical Continuation Triangle pattern as below.
Cost basis: Bought at $26.73
Target: $28.73
Stop loss: $26.46 [Below last three days lows]
Next Earnings: 21-Oct-08
Last Analyst Rating: Buy
Other comments: Over the next 1-2 months, the value stocks will be in favor and also mid-cap stocks will be in favor.




Tuesday, August 5, 2008

TIN Bought @ $16.27

Stock Analysis TIN [Temple-Inland Inc.: NYSE]
Sector: Paper & Paper Products; Consumer Non-Durables
Fundamentals: ROE 76.30% which is highest in the sector with dividend yield of 2.50%. TIN's 1 year earnings growth is 138.49% higher than the industry average. TIN's price/earnings (P/E)and price/sales (P/S) ratio are 95.50% and 88.40% lower than the industry average, which indicates that investors are buying TIN's revenue at a significant discount.
Technicals:MA(200) daily is $19.26 and MA(40) week is $17.95. P&F Pattern 'Triple Top Breakout Bullish' as of July 30, 2008 with target as $28. Also, 'Megaphone Bottom' pattern formed on July 30, 2008 with target of $20.00. Image below shows uptrend and P&F chart.
Cost basis: Bought at $16.27
Target: $17.77
Stop loss: $15.11 [Below recent two highs of $15.43 (May 20, 2008) & $15.22 (April 8,2008)]
Next Earnings: 22-Oct-08
Last Analyst Rating: Neutral
Other comments: Paper and Paper Products sector is doing well recently.

Tuesday, June 24, 2008

LDK Bought @ $40.01

Stock Analysis LDK [LDK Solar Co.Ltd: NYSE]
Sector: Diversified Electronics; China Stocks; Energy-Alt Srcs
Fundamentals: LDK's P/E ratio is 72.84% lower than the industry average and P/S ratio is 84.58% lower than the industry average; which indicates that investors are buying LDK's earnings and revenue at a significant discount. LDK's 1 year ROE is 270.35% higher than the industry average.
Technicals: MA(50) moving up and about to cross MA(200). Also current price closing above MA(50) support. Attached image shows them.
Cost basis: Bought at $40.01
Target: $47.31
Stop loss: $34.45 [0.90$ below the recent low of $35.35 on June 12, 2008]
Next Earnings: 06-August-08
Last Analyst Rating: Hold
Other comments: Combination of Alternative Energy due to energy crises and China stocks.

Tuesday, May 27, 2008

DAR Bought @ $14.94

Stock Analysis DAR [Darling International Inc: NYSE]
Sector: Food-Misc/Diversified ; Agricultural Commodities ; Cleaning Products
Fundamentals: DAR's total debt/equity ratio is 83.93 lower than the industry average. DAR's 1 year ROIC is 47.72% higher than the industry average, which may indicate that DAR has made very good use of its debt and equity capital. DAR's price/earnings (P/E) ratio is 83.07% lower than the industry average.
Technicals: MA(50) and MA(200) are having good upward trend. Also current price is close to MA(50) support. Attached image shows them.
Cost basis: Bought at $14.94
Target: $16.94
Stop loss: $14.04 [Reason MA(50) $14.26]
Next Earnings: 07-August-08
Last Analyst Rating: Mkt Perform
Other comments: The CAPS Screen: 10 Mouth-Watering Consumer Stocks [http://www.fool.com/investing/value/2008/05/20/the-caps-screen-10-mouth-watering-consumer-stocks.aspx]. The rare intersection between today's two hottest sectors: energy and agricultural products [http://seekingalpha.com/article/77772-darling-international-positives-outweigh-the-negatives?source=yahoo]

Wednesday, May 21, 2008

DHI Short at $14.91

Stock Analysis DHI [DR Horton Inc : NYSE]
Sector: Residential Construction
Fundamentals: DHI's ROE has dipped below the Residential Construction industry's average ROE over the last five years. DHI's 1 year ROA is 35.67% lower than the industry average, which may indicate that DHI has not used assets as successfully as its competitors have. DHI's long-term debt/shareholder's equity ratio has risen above the Residential Construction industry's average within the last five years. DHI's net profit margins have fallen below the Residential Construction industry's average over the last five years.
Technicals: Two Bearish Pattern Recognition as of Close May 09, 2008 as: 'Continuation Wedge (Bearish)' and 'Double Top (Bearish)' with target of $7.75 and $12.20 respectively. Also note that trendline on weekly chart has been broken with PPO bearish divergence. Attached image shows them.
Cost basis: Shorted at $14.91
Target: $13.15
Stop loss: $16.21 [Reason Parabolic SAR(0.05,0.5)]
Next Earnings: 24-July-08
Last Analyst Rating: Strong Buy (!!!)
Other comments: Shares of homebuilders fall on more signs turmoil in the housing market is not over (http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080519/homebuilders_sector_snap.html?.v&quicken=2)

Tuesday, May 6, 2008

VIP Bought @ $30.09

Stock Analysis VIP [Vimpel-Communications: NYSE]
Sector: Wireless Communications ; Telecomm-Wireless
Fundamentals: The company ROE of 31% also tops the industry average of 10% ; P/E (forward):11.41 with PEG 0.77 ; Dividend: 0.9%
Technicals: Currently MA(50)>MA(200) and they are in very close to each other even though the trend of MA(50) is down. Three Bullish patterns are found: 'Continuation Wedge (Bullish)' as of close on May 2, 2008 with potential target as $39. 'Diamond Bottom (Bullish)' and 'Symmetrical Continuation Triangle (Bullish)' formation as of close on 06, 2008 with potential target as $36 and $46. Attached image shows the trendline resistance.
Cost basis: Entered on 5/05/2008 for $30.09
Target: $36.13 [Above first bullish pattern target and below high price of Feb 21, 2008 $38.23]
Stop loss: $29.65 [Reason Parabolic SAR(0.05,0.5)]
Next Earnings: 23-May-08
Last Analyst Rating: Hold
Other comments: VIP recently posted fourth-quarter and full-year 2007 results, noting that revenues exceeded $7 billion and grew at a remarkable rate of 47%. The company exhibited growth in many areas and VIP also offers a dividend yield of 0.9%, which is better than the industry average.